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Markets are back at all-time highs as August begins, with the S&P 500 surpassing 7,700 on strong Big Tech earnings and falling oil prices. After a volatile July that delivered the first negative month of the year for the Nasdaq, the landscape has reset. Here's Peakfolio's full Q3 outlook — where we stand, what the key risks are, and how to position for the rest of the year. Where Markets Stand Entering Q3 The S&P 500 is up over 10% year-to-date, small caps and emerging market

The SOX semiconductor index fell 25% from its June high in just over a month. Sandisk — the year's most spectacular AI trade — dropped 53% from its peak of $2,335 to around $1,090 in five weeks. Intel announced mass layoffs. The AI memory and chip trade that dominated the first half of 2026 hit a wall. Here's what actually happened, why, and what it means going forward. What Caused the Semiconductor Selloff Three factors converged simultaneously. First, extreme valuation: aft

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX became a publicly traded company on the Nasdaq — one of the most anticipated IPOs in years. For investors, SpaceX is a genuinely unique situation: a company that dominates its industry, is run by one of the most consequential entrepreneurs of our time, and has financial characteristics unlike anything else in the public markets. Here's the full investor breakdown. What SpaceX Actually Is SpaceX is the world's dominant commercial launch provider with a

Defense stocks have been one of 2026's best-kept secrets. While the market obsessed over AI semiconductors and mega-cap tech, the ITA defense ETF has outperformed the broader SPY year-to-date. AeroVironment surged nearly 30% in a single week on earnings. Northrop Grumman and RTX Corp each rose over 10% in July alone. The geopolitical backdrop has created a multi-year tailwind for defense spending that most retail investors are significantly underweighted to. Here's how to thi

Q2 2026 earnings season is tracking as one of the strongest on record, with 47.4% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 — the highest quarterly growth rate in five years. With 61% of companies having reported, the data tells a clear story about where corporate strength is concentrated and where investors should be paying attention.

The most significant investment story of mid-2026 isn't AI — it's the historic rotation from growth to value that began in June and accelerated dramatically through July. Value outperformed growth by 8.5 percentage points in July alone, one of the five strongest relative performance events since 1979. If you missed it or are still positioned for the old regime, here's exactly what's happening and what to do about it.

One of the most talked-about IPOs of 2026 isn't a tech company or an AI play — it's Enhanced Group Inc. (NYSE: ENHA), the company behind the Enhanced Games, a sports competition that openly permits performance-enhancing drugs under medical supervision. The inaugural event just took place on May 24 in Las Vegas. The stock has been a wild ride. Here's the full investor breakdown. What Is Enhanced Group? Enhanced Group is a sports entertainment and performance products company b

The AI boom is the defining investment theme of this decade. Nvidia's earnings continue to shatter expectations, hyperscaler capex commitments keep climbing, and the infrastructure buildout shows no signs of slowing. But as with every transformational technology cycle, the opportunity is nuanced — not every AI stock is a buy at any price, and the biggest winners from here may not be the names everyone already owns. Here's how to think about investing in AI tech stocks right n

Inflation is back. After a brief period where it seemed like the battle was won, April CPI printed at its highest level since 2023 and PPI surged to its largest gain since 2022. Markets have responded by completely repricing the Fed outlook — from multiple rate cuts to a potential rate hike before year-end. This edition explains what's driving the comeback, what it means for your portfolio, and how to adjust. What's Driving Inflation Higher Again Three forces are pushing infl

The US-Iran conflict has become the dominant macro theme of the past several weeks, driving oil to multi-year highs and complicating the Federal Reserve's policy calculus. For investors, geopolitical risk is one of the hardest variables to model — but there are frameworks for navigating it without making emotional, reactionary decisions. This edition breaks it down. Why Geopolitical Risk Is Different From Economic Risk Economic risks — recessions, rate changes, earnings slowd

The US-Iran conflict has sent oil prices surging to multi-year highs, reigniting the energy sector as one of the most compelling areas of the market. For investors who understand how to navigate energy stocks, geopolitical disruptions like this create real opportunities — but also real risks. Here's how to think about it.

Kevin Warsh has been named the new Federal Reserve Chairman, succeeding Jerome Powell. For investors, a change at the top of the world's most powerful central bank is never a trivial event. Warsh brings a distinctly different philosophy to the role — and understanding what that means for monetary policy, interest rates, and your portfolio is essential right now.

A well-maintained watchlist is one of the most valuable tools an investor can have. It's not just a list of stocks you want to buy today; it's a curated database of businesses you understand well, priced below levels where you'd be comfortable owning them. When markets sell off and the headlines are terrible, your watchlist tells you exactly where to deploy capital while everyone else is paralyzed by fear. Here's how to build one properly. The Purpose of a Watchlist A watchli

Summer is approaching and with it comes a seasonal shift in market dynamics that every investor should be aware of. Lower trading volumes, a traditional slowdown in deal activity, and the famous "sell in May" narrative create a unique environment. Here's how to think about your portfolio positioning heading into the summer months of 2026. What Summer Markets Actually Look Like Summer markets are characterized by lower institutional participation as portfolio managers take vac

Cryptocurrency has gone from fringe experiment to legitimate asset class discussion in less than a decade. Whether you own crypto, are considering it, or simply want to understand it as an investor, here is a clear-eyed look at what it is, how it works, and how to think about it in the context of a serious investment portfolio.

Return on invested capital — ROIC — is the single best metric for identifying truly great businesses. More than revenue growth, more than earnings per share, more than any headline number, ROIC reveals whether a company is actually creating value for its shareholders or just consuming capital to generate the appearance of growth. Here's how to use it.

Technical analysis gets a bad reputation in some investing circles — dismissed as chart-reading or tea-leaf interpretation. But used correctly, it isn't a replacement for fundamental analysis. It's a tool for timing and risk management that even the most fundamental investors can benefit from understanding. Here's a practical introduction to what actually works.

We're now two weeks into May and the macro landscape has shifted materially from where we were just three weeks ago. The trade truce has reset sentiment, earnings season is wrapping up with broadly constructive results, and the Fed is navigating a complex backdrop. Here's Peakfolio's mid-May market read and what it means for your portfolio heading into the back half of the month. The Sentiment Reset The AAII Sentiment Survey and other investor sentiment indicators have shifte

Last week's US-China 90-day trade truce sent markets surging in their best weekly performance in months. But the real question isn't what already happened — it's what comes next, and how to position for it intelligently. This edition breaks down the opportunities the truce has created and how Peakfolio members should be thinking about them. What the Truce Actually Changes The 90-day truce reduces tariff rates on both sides substantially while negotiations continue. This doesn

Most investors focus almost entirely on picking individual stocks. Far fewer spend time thinking about how those stocks fit together into a coherent portfolio. Portfolio construction — the deliberate process of combining positions to achieve a target return profile with appropriate risk — is what separates wealth builders from stock pickers. Here's a practical framework for building one.